An N-VA election poster boasting “Courage to change now.” Considering the threats his party faces, De Wever might do well to heed his own warning. Photo by _Skender_ via Flickr.

Outside the church of Saint Lutgard in Tongeren, a sleepy Belgian provincial town, is a billboard covered in publicity for the dozens of regional political parties. Prominent among these are the bright yellow posters carrying the Dutch slogan Denken. Durven. Doen. The irony that this slogan (which translates as something like Think. Dare. Do.) was originally borrowed from a toy advert may be lost on most passers-by, but the importance of the party which uses it is certainly not. Since its foundation in 2001, the Nieuwe Vlaamse Alliantie (New Flemish Alliance or N-VA) has experienced a meteoric rise from the fringe of politics in its native Flanders to being the single biggest party in Belgium.

One of the most difficult things to understand about the N-VA is exactly what it stands for. In many respects, they are a successor to the so-called “Flemish Movement” parties which trace their lineage to the bitterness felt by Flemish conscripts in the First World War towards their French-speaking officers. Yet there are crucial differences. “They are, in many respects, a populist party,” argues Dr. Martin Conway of Balliol College, Oxford. “They breed on hostility to the established system, rather than on any particular vision of the new order they seek to achieve.” There’s certainly no doubt about the party’s intentions in the international press – Reuters hailed the N-VA gains in the October election as a “victory for the party that wants to split Belgium” – yet the party itself is more cautious about showing its colours. Its website proclaims that “Flanders and Wallonia must receive as much autonomy as possible so that they can each carry out a policy that is suited to their own community” yet nowhere does it mention  explicitly that an N-VA government would seek to create an independent Flanders. How can this ideological gulf be reconciled with the evident electoral success of the party? To some extent, the N-VA thrives on this ambiguity. Among its voters, the N-VA counts former Catholic Democrats, Greens and even Socialists, yet it also includes members of the neo-Nazi Vlaams Belang party, which has seen its own vote plummet in the past few years. By defining his party as the core of opposition to central government and the Wallonia, the N-VA can sidestep ideology while gaining electoral support to use as a negotiating tool. This allows it to win minor concessions from central government (autonomy over unemployment benefits for example) that will keep his voters on side, while still maintaining his party’s image as aggressive force in national politics.

So who is the man who has presided over this rise? Bart de Wever is a 41 year-old, former history graduate from Antwerp who comes from a dynasty of Flemish nationalists. Rather like his party though, De Wever not as straightforward as he seems. “It’s difficult to know who the real Bart de Wever is,” says Dr Conway, “He’s the focus of the movement…he’s an interesting phenomenon because he makes politics fun, and it’s obvious that a lot of people like laughing with him or at him.” This is certainly true: the satirical cartoon  depictions of De Wever even in the Flemish press range from the vulgar to the merely insulting and yet this seems not to have had any effect on his electoral success. Nor, for that matter, has the controversy he generates. De Wever caused considerable storm when he attended a conference given by the former leader of the French Front National, Jean-Marie Le Pen.  His reputation amongst liberals was also severely damaged when he attended the funeral of the neo-Nazi, holocaust denier Karel Dillen and even appeared to play down the Belgian role in the holocaust himself in a speech given in Antwerp. “I don’t see those gestures as indicative of a real, dark Bart de Wever emerging,” argues Dr Conway. “The tension for him is that he’s balancing different groups within his own ranks – and he knows that, and he’s running fast to make sure the ice doesn’t crack under his feet.”

So what next for this unpredictable party?  Thus far, the N-VA has been excluded from politics at a national level. The much televised “political crisis” of 2010-1, in which the record for the longest period without a government was smashed by the 541-day negotiations between parties, was principally the result of centrist unwillingness to consider a coalition with the N-VA. However, this may not be possible in the future, particularly if the N-VA vote continues to climb. Some have questioned the long-term viability of a party which seems to have so many problems with its cohesion and fundamental ideology. “It is possible that the N-VA might split, or that its electorate might decline,” concedesDr. Conway. “That’s what we all expect to happen from each election to each election, yet the recent elections now seem to demonstrate that they’re still collecting up extra votes.” There’s also the question about whether the old mainstream political parties in Flanders, nearly torn apart by the rise of the N-VA, would even be able to fill the vortex left by the party’s collapse. It might not represent a threat to national unity, but if the N-VA would be willing to accept greater regional autonomy in Flanders and Wallonia in lieu of actual separation, De Wever and his party could certainly be a major force in Belgian politics for the long-term.